INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE GROWTH RATES AND DIRECTION OF GROWTH OF OUTPUTS OF SELECTED FOOD GRAINS IN NIGERIA (1981-2020)

Abstract

The study assessed the influence on the growth rates and direction of growth of prices of outputs of selected food grans (rice, maize and wheat) in Nigeria from 1981 to 2020. Time series data were collected from secondary sources. The data was analyzed using regression analysis. The analysis showed that, the instantaneous growth rates were 4.8%, 4.3% and 1.5% for outputs of maize, rice and wheat, respectively, per annum increase in Nigeria (1981-2020); Whereas the value of the coefficient of quadratic term (t²) for rice (5.22), maize (0.649) and wheat (-0.62) were positive for rice and maize but negative for wheat which implies stagnated growth rates in rice and maize production and accelerated growth process in wheat production. In the same, the result revealed that the instantaneous growth rates were 15.5%, 13.2% and 13.1% for prices of maize, rice and wheat, respectively, per annum increase in Nigeria (1981-2020). Also, the value of the coefficient of t² for rice (13.2%), maize (15.5%) and wheat (13.1%) were all positive and significant – which implies accelerated growth process in Nigeria (1981-2020). The study concluded that, climate change, environmental degradation and stagnating yields could have catastrophic effects and reduce yields and increase prices of food grains like rice, maize and wheat in Nigeria. It was therefore, recommends that, effort should be made by government and other relevant stakeholders in agriculture towards providing irrigation facilities in order to adjust any unfavourable influence of increase or decrease in rainfall on food grains’ growth and yield in Nigeria.